The Conservative Party is a total shambles and will lose the next general election heavily.

Who says so? Its own members - from all sides of the party - and some are even looking forward to opposition!

They want to regroup, redefine what the party stands for and where it goes next - and prepare for the day when it inherits the mess caused by the incoming Labour government.

That's what I've heard from some local party members - but it's a dangerous conceit and frankly when the Conservatives do go into opposition there's a very real existential threat to the future of the party unless some grown-ups start to take charge!

Over the last week, following the appointment of Jeremy Hunt as the government's new boss, I haven't spoken to one Tory who thinks the party has a chance of stopping a Labour victory at the next general election.

The most optimistic comment I've heard was: "We do live in extraordinary times and there could still be something totally unforeseeable around the corner - but failing that then we're bound for opposition."

One thing I didn't detect from my conversations with local Tories was a desperate wish to get rid of the Prime Minister.

There seemed to be a feeling that she might as well continue as a Zombie Prime Minister with the government's policies being controlled by Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

That would avoid the need to tarnish any other politician with the legacy of a massive election defeat!

Because that's what's facing the Conservatives. The only question is whether the defeat will be smaller or greater than that in 1997.

Just a reminder. In that year Labour won an overall majority across the country of 179 seats. In Suffolk it held Ipswich and gained Waveney. In north Essex it won seats at Harwich and Braintree.

Also that year, the seats the Conservatives did hang on to were left looking marginal - although of course they were safe and the party rebuilt its majorities over the next few elections.

I find it difficult to imagine things could get even worse than that for the Conservatives locally. It's a real stretch to see places like Suffolk Coastal, Bury St Edmunds and Central Suffolk and North Ipswich turning Labour- but that is what some recent polls suggest.

They're almost certainly wrong. When the election is called many natural Tories will return to the party even if they are appalled by the state it is in.

But marginal seats are another matter. As it looks at the moment it is difficult to see Tom Hunt hanging on in Ipswich.

From 1997-2010 Waveney was held by Labour's Bob Blizzard and although Conservative Peter Aldous had an 18,000 majority in 2019 he will be aware he cannot take anything for granted.

If we do have a repeat of 1997 the Conservative Party could be in real danger of pulling itself apart. Already it is split - and parties that go into opposition after a long time in power have a habit of spending far too much time talking to themselves and not to the general public.

We saw that with the Tories in 1997 and Labour after their 2010 defeat - both parties took the best part of a decade after losing power to realise that life in government is better than in opposition and to get there you have to take an adult approach to politics!

That all means that the next general election-winning Conservative leader quite possibly isn't anywhere near the House of Commons yet.

And anyone who now succeeds Liz Truss is likely to go down in history as the PM who led the party to landmark defeat.

Does anyone really want that on their political CV?

The problem for today's Conservatives is that whatever they say there are too many "big beasts" who don't want unity. They want the freedom opposition gives them to explore radical and fanciful ideas.

And that leaves those who really do want to see politics as a way of undertaking public service with nowhere to go in a party that has used up any reserves of goodwill that it might have once had in the public as a whole.